# Phase 7 Part 5: Rate Channel Appendix

## 5.1 Baseline: Homogeneous 3c Index (10y yields only)

- Sample: 635 obs, 23 countries

| Variable | Coefficient | SE | p-value |
|----------|-------------|-------|---------|
| Z_1 | -8.937*** | 2.509 | 0.0004 |
| Z_2 | 1.082*** | 0.334 | 0.0013 |
| Z_3 | -0.036*** | 0.012 | 0.0035 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.018*** | 0.004 | 0.0000 |
| kaopen | 0.185*** | 0.036 | 0.0000 |
| log_rel_opw | -0.093 | 0.123 | 0.4480 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.109** | 0.046 | 0.0186 |

R² = 0.2938, N = 635

## 5.2 Pre/Post GFC on Homogeneous 3c

| Period | Z₁ | p | Z₂ | p | Z₃ | p | R² | N |
|--------|-----|---|-----|---|-----|---|-----|---|
| Pre-GFC | -10.873*** | 0.000 | 1.489*** | 0.000 | -0.056*** | 0.000 | 0.326 | 359 |
| Post-GFC | -0.636 | 0.794 | 0.071 | 0.825 | -0.002 | 0.873 | 0.442 | 253 |

## 5.3 Direct: Z → 10y Government Bond Yield

| Variable | Coefficient | SE | p-value |
|----------|-------------|-------|---------|
| Z_1 | 53.068** | 20.723 | 0.0107 |
| Z_2 | -5.964** | 2.758 | 0.0310 |
| Z_3 | 0.186* | 0.103 | 0.0715 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.029 | 0.023 | 0.2195 |
| kaopen | -1.394*** | 0.243 | 0.0000 |
| log_rel_opw | -1.022 | 1.021 | 0.3172 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.179 | 0.355 | 0.6154 |

R² = 0.2252, N = 635

**Rate channel conclusion**: Demographics predict 10y bond yields on homogeneous data.

## 5.4 Comparison: Z → rate_japan (Heterogeneous)

- Z₁: -43.881** (p=0.0104)
- Z₂: 6.000** (p=0.0178)
- Z₃: -0.229** (p=0.0246)
- N = 3,041, R² = 0.1560